It’s time to check on my Asian gaming predictions for 2016. As seen in my crystal ball, a half-scale Eiffel Tower has helped Macau climb back to growth. The Philippines has been the top performing casino market in the region. The moment of truth for Indian gaming is coming. Asian casino operators increased their presence in Europe. Shanghai Disneyland has been a hit but hasn’t stopped Macau’s turnaround. Let’s look at last January’s forecasts in depth.

Vive la France in Macau
Wynn Palace was the more anticipated opening but, as forecast here, Sands China’s Parisian Macao made the biggest impact. Sheldon Adelson’s $3 billion integrated resort focused on the mass market and aligns precisely with Macau’s transition from VIP to mass market, featuring more than a dozen reproduced sights from the City of Lights in an affordable package.
Billionaire Steve Wynn’s new property, primarily targeting high rollers, and Parisian helped Macau reverse 26 straight months of falling gaming revenue and close 2015 with five straight monthly gains. Parisian also helped cement Adelson’s most important player status in Asian and global gaming.

Manila gets its mojo back
After a disappointing 2015, Philippine casinos came roaring back this year – as expected – aided by a boost in Chinese visitor arrivals and robust domestic economic growth. Despite being linked to funds from a Bangladesh bank robbery via New York, casino market leader Solaire, controlled by billionaire Enrique Razon Jr, reported all-time highs in VIP, mass table and electronic gaming machine (EGM) volume, contributing to record gross gaming revenue of P27.88 billion ($557 million), plus record non-gaming revenue for the first nine months of the year. Government-owned casino operator and regulator Pagcor, and Solaire’s rival Genting, linked Resorts World Manila and Melco Crown-operated City of Dreams Manila, which have reported similarly robust results.
Rodrigo Duterte’s assumption of the presidency on June 30 didn’t slow market growth; Solaire’s third quarter numbers set quarterly records. However, the presidential arrest warrant for Macau junket tycoon Jack Lam issued by live broadcast on December 2, and Duterte’s apparent opposition to gambling targeting locals could change the market dynamic. On the other hand, so could Japanese pachinko mogul Kazuo Okada’s $2 billion Okada Manila, the Philippine’s priciest casino project ever, starting a self-described “preview” on December 21 ahead of a grand opening early next year.

India is the new China
From inside and outside, casinos are expanding in India. In April, a report from Global Market Advisors estimated India’s potential gaming market at $10 billion. During the year, new casinos opened in Goa and Himalayan Sikkim province, while local authorities in Maharashtra, the state that includes commercial hub Mumbai, began evaluating casino legalization.
Externally, regional gaming operator Silver Heritage secured a listing on the Australian stock market in August, raising $19 million to help finance casino resort along Nepal’s border with India, expected to open in the first half of 2017. What hasn’t happened, to my surprise, is any casino operator outside the immediate vicinity making discernible moves to attract India players. The key to unlocking the Indian market remains finding the right product and setting for players that differ substantially from their Chinese and Western counterparts.

Asia comes to Europe
In April, Chinese property developer Landing International, Genting’s partner turned successor on South Korea’s Jeju island gaming projects, bought London’s Les Ambassadeurs Club, a historic casino in the Mayfair area. Landing raised membership fees and table limits, aiming to specialize in Asian high rollers.
At the other end of the market, Melco Crown won the bid for what would be Europe’s first real integrated on Cyprus, the Mediterranean island that draws visitors from both European and the Middle East. The next challenge for Euro-Asian operators will be building broader synergy between such different markets and customer bases. Galaxy Entertainment owns 10% of Monaco’s casino operator, and the next phase of Galaxy Macau could show the way.

Mouse madness
Disneyland Shanghai opened in June when things were most bleak in Macau. Spending patterns for visitors to the $5.5 billion theme park mirrored those of mainland Chinese visitors to Macau, suggesting Disney could cannibalize Macau trips. But by August, Macau’s gaming growth returned, and Disney effect worries receded.
Nevertheless, a Macau focused on tourism and leisure must compete with the full range of entertainment options, not just in the region but the world, from theme parks to cruise ships, unlike a Macau focused on high roller gambling with unique advantages in that segment. New Cotai resorts, greater connectivity with both Hong Kong and neighboring Hengqinisland, where a half-dozen theme park projects are open or under development, will make Macau a more attractive tourist destination. But the competition for Chinese consumers’ discretionary spending keeps escalating, and Macau will have to run as fast as it can just to hold its advantaged position. That’s a happy new year thought.